Herd

Today, natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis decimate land and upturn society across the globe. Human death toll attributed to natural disasters reaches an excess of 20,000 annually. Existing advanced early warning systems consist of thousands of measurement devices that relay information back to central observation buildings to warn citizens of imminent danger. Technology has progressed significantly in this space, such as allowing governments to issue emergency warnings to all portable devices and smartphones. However, this approach comes at a high cost. The IOTWS (Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System), costs bordering countries between $50-100 million annually. This approach is complex, expensive, and inaccessible to developing nations which often suffer the greatest loss of life to natural disasters – over 90% of deaths caused by natural disasters occur in low-income countries.

Historical records indicate many early forms of society relied on the knowledge and behaviours of animals and took shelter from impending disasters upon changes in animal behaviour. From ancient anecdotes to 'misunderstood observations' in an era less scientifically advanced, many would dismiss these stories in favour of advancements in digital sensors. However, the outcomes of preliminary trials by the Max Planck Institute have demonstrated a strong correlation to abnormal animal behaviour before major seismic events and disasters, capable of prediction earlier than advanced sensor-based systems. 

Herd is a proposal calling for action to launch further real-world trials and deploy this life-saving scientific insight by the Max Planck Institute globally, making earlier natural disaster prediction accessible to all communities affected.

Next steps have been developed including a pilot study to be conducted in Turkey where the East Anatolian Fault Line is located.